Pay attention Alabama: Census count could cost congressional seat, big money

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey speaks at a luncheon at the South Baldwin Chamber of Commerce in Foley, Ala. on Friday, September 29, 2017. Ivey encouraged politicians and business leaders to start getting prepared for the 2020 U.S. Census count. (Brian Kelly/bkelly@al.com) Alabama Governor Kay Ivey speaks at a luncheon at the South Baldwin Chamber of Commerce in Foley, Ala. on Friday, September 29, 2017.(Photos by Brian Kelly/bkelly@al.com)

Census forms won't be mailed out for more than two years, and chances are that the government's count every 10 years is the furthest thing from Alabamian's minds right now.

But that hasn't stopped some politicians, notably Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, from sounding an alarm about the importance of coordinating efforts to bolster the state's response rate in 2020.

"You must put this on your radar screens," Ivey said last week before a chamber of commerce luncheon in Foley. "We must have strong participation in the upcoming Census. This is serious business for our state going forward."

There is a lot at stake for Alabama, as predictions have surfaced in recent months that the state will lose one of its seven U.S. House seats. In addition, billions of dollars in federal money for everything from transportation projects to children's health programs are allocated based on the population counts, and Alabama could lose out if an accurate tally isn't recorded.

"Even though we are a few years from forming the Census, the preparations start well in advance and there are things starting already at the federal level," U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne, R-Fairhope, said. "It's not premature to be talking about it."

Lost representation

At issue for Alabama is the potential loss of congressional representation because the state's overall population is growing at an unremarkable clip compared to other states such as Georgia, Florida and Tennessee.

Since 2010, Alabama has grown 1.7 percent - largely thanks to Baldwin, Lee and Madison counties -- which puts it as the 36th fastest growing state in the nation. Only West Virginia has lost population since 2010, and it also stands to lose a congressional seat. Florida is projected to gain two seats, Texas three.

The possibilities of future reapportionment are starting to become water cooler talk in Washington, D.C. U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks, R-Huntsville, said two of five House members in the northern or central part of the state will likely be lumped into the same congressional district if Alabama loses a seat.

"Our great state is in serious jeopardy of losing a congressional seat," Ivey said. "And sizeable federal dollars."

There are a lot of unknowns. One immediate concern is how redistricting will be handled after the 2020 count is concluded. The U.S. Supreme Court, this week, heard testimony in a Wisconsin case over a 2011 district map drawn up by a Republican-controlled Legislature. The high court will determine if the map, deemed as blatantly partisan, should be ruled unconstitutional.

The court's ruling could determine how Alabama redraws its maps. The Legislature has long been charged with redrawing state legislative and congressional boundaries, while 21 other states have formed redistricting commissions assigned with the task.

The process in Alabama will likely be political, considering the potential loss of a congressional seat.

Gerald Webster, professor of political geography at the University of Wyoming and a former geography professor at the University of Alabama, said the federal Voting Rights Act maintains that state keep its single majority-minority congressional district, which is currently represented by Democrat U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell. The competition, he said, will be among the Republicans who dominate state politics.

Byrne said he's concerned about the possibility of his south Alabama district having a split, with Mobile and adjacent Baldwin counties represented by two different House members.

"It's a natural fit for Mobile and Baldwin counties to be together," said Byrne. "I would hate to see it for people who live in two areas to have one congressman from the Mobile side and another from the Baldwin side. I don't think it's likely, but it's not something you can take your eye off the ball about."

'Pay attention'

The concerns raised among Alabama lawmakers is nothing new, said Kenneth Prewitt, the Carnegie professor of public affairs at Columbia University and the head of the U.S. Census Bureau from 1998-2000.

"It will be hard to get the general public to pay attention to it, but it won't be hard to (engage) the chambers of commerce or the universities who are worried about it," Prewitt said. "There is $600 billion every year that will be spent and anchored on the results the Census gives you and it's allocated proportionately to population size for programs such as VA hospitals and lunch programs for school kids. The stakes are high."

Prewitt, who oversaw the 2000 count, said states like California and New York were "leaders" in preparations before the questionnaires were mailed to residents. He anticipates more state leaders sounding alarm bells years before the Census mails out its forms in the spring 2020.

"There are already anxieties in statehouses and chambers of commerces," he said. "The national Chamber of Commerce has said ... they use the data on where to put new Walmart's and where they know they can get an educated labor pool or a new (information technology) initiative in a certain state and so and so forth."

The key for state leaders will be to avoid a higher undercount. Alabama, in 2010, was one of 20 states that had higher participation rate for mailing in census forms than in 2000.

The five major counties of metropolitan Birmingham all topped their 2000 participation rates, as did Mobile, Montgomery, Lee and Baldwin counties.

The lowest participation occurred in rural, and poorer, counties within Alabama's Black Belt region where high-speed Internet connectivity is sparse. According to a Federal Communications Commission report in 2015, 56 percent of Alabamians living in rural areas are without Internet connectivity.

Prewitt said the Internet will be depended upon for a high response rate during the 2020 count.

"The people without access to Internet because they haven't caught up with that will be harder to find," Prewitt said. "The undercount, even if it's small, it will affect the allocation of funds ... and it can affect (which state) gets the last (House) seat."

In 2000, a federal lawsuit was filed after Utah missed qualifying for the 435th and final House seat by 856 people. That seat went to North Carolina instead.

'Critical implications'

Ivey's efforts to promote the Census also come at a time when there are questions over the Census Bureau's annual budget, which Prewitt said isn't at a level to roll out a successful advertising campaign to prevent undercounts.

The Government Accountability Office has included the 2020 census on its list of high-risk projects. The uncertainties include the bureau's budget and technology.

Prewitt said an increasing distrust of government could be a concerned.

"The best way to get a decent response rate is via advertising from trusted voices - our schools need to do it, our chamber of commerces to need to take it seriously, etc." he said. "When there is a nervousness about data and concerns about privacy, these trusted voices are indispensable."

Said Prewitt: "Your governor is really smart to start the alarm bells now. If it doesn't work well, there will be a big undercount. And if Alabama is really in that running for the 435th seat, the governor has an even stronger point to make."

Webster said there is no reason why people should be distrustful of a process that is constitutionally-mandated and has occurred every decade since 1790.

"The Census Bureau does not share information about individuals so there is no reason for anyone not to complete the form including undocumented residents," said Webster, noting that undocumented immigrants are among the groups least likely to return forms.

"I do not think it is too early for Governor Ivey to state the importance of returning an accurate census form," he added. "The results can have critical implications."

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