Federal Mandatory Spending for Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits

House Budget Committee Chairman Arrington has asked CBO to provide information concerning outlays for the government's major mandatory programs and tax credits that are primarily means-tested; that is, for programs and tax credits that provide cash payments or other forms of assistance to people with relatively low income or few assets.

In CBO's projections, total mandatory spending increases over the next 10 years at an average annual rate of 4.6 percent, compared with an average of 6.1 percent over the past 10 years. Under the January 2025 baseline, CBO projects that if current laws generally remain unchanged, mandatory outlays for means-tested programs increase over the next decade at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent; the growth rate for outlays in non–means-tested programs averages 5.1 percent over the period.